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Happy Friday and welcome to On The Money, your evening guide to everything related to your bills, your bank account and your results. Subscribe here: thehill.com/newsletter-inscription.

Today’s big deal: The September jobs report showed a labor market still struggling with a resurgent pandemic. We’ll also look at the implications of yesterday’s debt ceiling deal.

But first, find out why Elon muskElon Reeve MuskElon Musk Announces Telsa Headquarters Relocation to Texas Why Electric F-150s Won’t Help the Climate The Russian Film Crew Beats Tom Cruise in Race to Shoot First Space Movie MORE is move to texas.

For The Hill, I’m Sylvan Lane. Email me at [email protected] or @SylvanLane. You can reach my colleagues from the Finance team Naomi Jagoda at [email protected] or @NJagoda and Aris Folley at [email protected] Where @ArisFolley.

Let’s go.

Five takeaways from the employment slowdown in September

The delta variant push continued to weigh on the economy in September, with the United States adding just 194,000 jobs last month. While the unemployment rate fell sharply from 5.2% to 4.8%, this is largely due to maintaining the size of the workforce.

Economists expected a gain of around 500,000 after a very disappointing August report, but saw little relief as consumer confidence, school closures and health problems limited the labor market.

Economists hope the September jobs report, based on surveys conducted shortly before the delta’s upward peak, marks the worst of the slowdown. President BidenJoe BidenArkansas lawmakers introduce bill to ban companies from requiring vaccine status from workers Senate approves increase in short-term debt ceiling also touted signs of ‘constant progress, “ expressing confidence in an October turnaround.

But the September jobs report underscored how difficult it is to foster a full recovery without the pandemic under control.

The pandemic remains the main factor

As the economy has recovered much of the damage caused by the onset of the pandemic, the delta surge has reignited several familiar issues.

Sectors hardest hit by health problems continued to suffer in September, with restaurants and bars reporting no job growth for the second month in a row. Job growth in the food service industry has been a key indicator of the recovery from the pandemic, making a second month without earnings a cause for concern.

Demographic groups hardest hit by the pandemic have also seen disappointing setbacks as delta pressurizes the job market.

While the labor force participation rate remained roughly equal to 61.7% last month and 70% for men, it fell from 56.2% to 55.9% for women. Women were disproportionately more likely to both lose their jobs at the onset of the pandemic and not be able to return to the workforce due to constraints related to the pandemic.

“Almost 200,000 people left the workforce during the month, reversing August’s gains. All the losses were women, ”said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in an analysis Friday.

“Mothers continued to struggle with child care and the challenge of quarantines after schools reopened. We are still down by three million workers compared to February 2020; women represent 64% of these workers.

The black unemployment rate also fell by almost a percentage point, but also largely due to a sharp decline in labor force participation.

Education distorts the picture

Public education jobs fell off a cliff in September’s employment report, falling by 144,000 at a time when the sector is expected to create jobs. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with many private-sector economists, attributed the drop to the volatile impact of the pandemic colliding with seasonal adjustments.

“Fluctuations in school staff linked to the pandemic have distorted normal hiring patterns – like back-to-school hiring which normally occurs in September. Seasonal adjustments can further complicate these distortions, ”said Gordon Gray, director of fiscal policy at the right-wing US Action Forum.

Gray pointed to the addition of 317,000 private sector jobs, which matches August’s revised gain of 332,000 jobs in non-government businesses.

A MESSAGE FROM THE NRHC

We believe in rental housing

Single-family rental companies help economically challenged residents and ensure an immediate supply of quality, affordable and conveniently located rental housing.

THE STOPPING OF FEDERAL UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS HAS LITTLE STIMULATED THE LABOR MARKET

Policymakers hoped that many of the 6.2 million Americans who lost their unemployment benefits when federal assistance programs expired on September 6 would quickly find jobs. It didn’t seem to be happening.

Labor force participation remained largely stable in September despite the absence of federal benefits, the number of people who would like to work but are not looking for work remained even at 6 million, and 1.6 million Americans have remained unable to take a job due to a pandemic-related stress.

“The larger-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate shouldn’t be very heartwarming because it was not driven by the acceleration of job search among the unemployed,” said Aaron Sojourner, professor of economics at University of Minnesota and former White House Council economist. economic advisers.

“The number of people coming off the sidelines to search is down 400,000 from last month. “

Companies are always looking for workers

Job vacancies remained at record highs for several months, with millions of Americans still out of the workforce. Strong demand for workers has pushed wage growth higher, with the average hourly wage rising 0.6% just last month. Employees also worked longer hours in September, as companies struggled to fill positions relying heavily on existing staff.

“I suspect that many employers were hoping to get through the summer limping without increasing posted wages as quickly as needed to hire new people, in the hope that [unemployment insurance] cuts and [schools] reopening would lead to an increase in labor supply in the fall, ”Sojourner wrote in an email.

“Corporate profits are on the rise. Many companies can afford larger increases, but managers resist higher hourly wage costs. “

This might be the worst report in a while

If you were looking for the darkest moment to assess the health of the labor market in September, the jobs report nailed it.

The Department of Labor conducts two surveys to obtain data for the monthly employment report around the 12th day of the month. The United States was nearing the peak of daily cases of COVID-19 caused by the delta variant at the time, and millions of Americans lost their unemployment benefits less than a week before.

“The September jobs report is a glimpse in the rearview mirror,” wrote Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, in an analysis Friday.

“COVID-19 cases have declined significantly since early September and the job market is likely to return to the same place it was before the Delta surge. “

LEAD THE DAY

House to vote on raising debt ceiling on Tuesday

The House will interrupt a recess scheduled for next week to vote Tuesday on legislation passed by the Senate to extend the debt limit until December.

The House, which was long due to be out of session this week and coinciding with the Columbus Day recess, is expected to resume its recess quickly as soon as lawmakers authorize the extension of the debt limit on Tuesday night.

“The speaker [Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiHouse to vote Tuesday on debt limit hike On The Money — Presented by NRHC — Senate slowly walks back from debt disaster House Democrats urge leaders to keep housing in reconciliation bill MORE] and I both spoke with Secretary of the Treasury Yellen, who said that if the House does not act next week, the country will be unable to pay its bills. It can’t happen. Therefore, the House will meet on Tuesday, October 12 to adopt this interim measure, and I think we will finish our work that evening, ”said the House majority leader. Steny HoyerSteny Hamilton HoyerHouse to vote on raising debt ceiling on Tuesday Senate approves increase in short-term debt ceiling (D-Md.) Said in a statement.

How we got here:

  • Earlier Thursday, the Senate adopted a short-term decision extension of the debt limit in a vote that divided Republicans who had previously vowed to oppose any measure to prevent default.
  • As the bill passed party lines, 50-48, 11 Republicans voted with Democrats to overcome a procedural hurdle that required 60 votes.

A MESSAGE FROM THE NRHC

We believe in rental housing

Single-family rental companies help economically challenged residents and ensure an immediate supply of quality, affordable and conveniently located rental housing.

Good to know

The Organization for Economic Development Co-operation (OECD) announced on Friday that 136 countries have agreed to an agreement on an overall minimum corporate tax of 15 percent.

Here’s what else we have on our minds:

On tap next week

Tuesday:

  • The Peterson Institute for International Economics organize a webinar on inflation at 12:30 p.m.

Wednesday:

  • The Biparty Policy Center organize a webinar on Social Security and the future of the program at 10 a.m.
  • The House Financial Services Committee working group on artificial intelligence holds a hearing on AI ethics at 12 p.m.

Thusday:

  • A House Financial Services Subcommittee holds a hearing on the implications of a cashless economy at 12 noon

That’s all for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finances page for the latest news and coverage. See you on Monday.


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Julio V. Miller

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